Over/Under Betting
Over/Under Betting
Over/under betting is when you bet if the final total score will be over or under the total predicted score. The total score is the combine score from both teams that the sportsbooks/vendor predicts before the game. The objective is to predict if the total final score is more than or less than what the sportsbooks/vendors predicted.
The Breakdown
Understanding Over/Under
Example 1. The sportsbooks predicted score was under the final score. If you were to place your bets for the final score to be under 65.5, then you would have won. The final score would have to be less than in order to win the bet. (A score prediction that is equal to the final score is a push.) If you were to place your bets for the final score to be over 65.5 then you would have lost the bet, because the total points did not exceed 65.
Example 2. The sportsbooks predicted the final score to be 45 total points. The final score for that game is 37. Again, if you placed your bets for the final score to be over 45.5 then you would have lost the bet. But if you placed your bets for the final score to be under 45.5 then you would have won, because the sportsbooks set the odds lines to be 45 for the base predicted score. If you set your wager for the score to be any number less than the 45 point offer that is a win. And if you happen to bet that the final score is 37, then it would be a push. **It’s a good practice to place a .5 in your bets to receive a definitive win or loss to avoid a push.**
Over/under betting is a great strategy to use if you are uncertain of which team/player will win the game/match, or if both teams/players happen to be equally strong or weak, bet on the total score to get winning results.
Example 1
Week 11 NFL
SPORTSBOOKS PREDICTIONS: 60 total points
- Packers: 31 total points (final score)
- Vikings: 34 total points (final score)
- COMBINE TOTAL: 65 points
Example 2
NFL Conference Championship
SPORTSBOOKS PREDICTIONS: 45 total points
- 49ers: 17 total points (final score)
- Rams: 20 total points (final score)
- COMBINE TOTAL: 37 points
Pushes, Parlays, and More
Does a push ruin a parlay?
No. A push is a tie. In the case of a push, the wager is taken out of the parlay altogether and your odds readjusted.
Can you win a parlay with a push?
Yes. The tied selection will be removed from your betslip and the parlay will be adjusted to include your remaining wagers. You win the new parlay if all remaining legs win.
Are there other options to avoid pushes?
Last option, bet on the money line to avoid pushes altogether. Money line is a straight forward bet that doesn’t involve any spread picks. If you come across a unclear spread picks, choices can be: pass on the bet altogether or bet on the money line (favorite/underdog).
How to bet over/under predictions?
Over example: Let’s say the final total score in American football is 57, and you bet; (o)51.5. This is a winning bet because the total score is over 51 points.
Under example: Now, if the final total score is 42 and you bet; (u)49.5. This is a winning bet because the final score is under 49.
How to win using the over/under method?
Follow a reputable sports betting system.
Check the starting goals.
Skip any unclear signals, it’s better to pass on a bet than to make any costly mistakes.
Over/under examples?
For this example if you placed your bet (o)51.5 and the final score is 55, then you would win because the score exceeded 51 points. If you placed your bet to (u)51.5 then you would have lost because the score more than 51 points.
If you happen to place your bet for the final score to be 55 and the final score is 55, you broke even would get your return back, because you didn’t win or lose, that would be called a push. This isn’t bad, but you didn’t really gain any money, and you want win, that is the bottom line.
FAQ
- Push
In sports betting, if you happen to get a “push,” it simply means you tie or break even with the bookmaker/sportsbooks. The wager is returned back to you. Should you worry if you get a lot of pushes?Occasional pushes are not a concern, but the goal is to win and gain profits. Breaking even doesn’t exactly give you the returns to be successful in sports betting.Most pushes do occur on point spread betting specifically over/under bets. If you are a spread bettor then, you’ve probably had a few pushes happen.If a Over/Under bet hits on the exact number, that’s a push. You technically didn’t win, and all wagers are refunded to bettors no matter whether they bet the Over or the Under. This only occurs when there isn’t a decimal involved.
- How to avoid pushes
Fortunately, there are ways to avoid pushes.On point spread sheets, you might see sportsbooks adding a “.5,” or a half-point to their totals. This works because there are no half a points in sporting events. The best and most common way to avoid a push is using half points. Sportsbooks will impose a line with a “hook,” or half-point to ensure a definite win or loss. Half-point betting, reduces the chances of your wagers to break-even. No surprise, but sportsbooks don’t like pushes either.
- Value bets
Value betting is when the risk to reward ratios are heavily in your favor. Oddsmakers are often in a position where they have to issue lines/odds on a large amount of games, so their resources are stretched and they become at higher risk of losing out. Even with considerable expertise, they are not immune to errors. Be aware of the “soft sports” where the oddsmaker failed to judge the game/event properly or ignored a potentially key factor in the outcome.
The best value bets can often be found by going against the favorite because oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected weight of public money, so that the underdog is often yielded at better odds or receives a larger point spread than is given.
Value bets are a possible way to win long-term. However, few bettors know what they are and even fewer know how to execute them properly.
- Advantage over the bookmaker
Value betting is the practice of finding a bet at odds that give the bettor an advantage over the bookmaker. You have a value bet if there is a much better chance of an event occurring than what the bookmarker’s odds display.
- Expected value
Understanding the concept of expected value can help you identify the potential profits in order to find value bets. A bet’s expected value (EV) shows the profit a bettor ‘expects’ to win per bet. It shows how much they would win or lose if they were to place the same bets repeatedly.
- Overlays
This bet type refers to odds that benefit the player more than the “house”. It generally refers to a situation where the bettor is in a good position and has an edge over the sportsbooks. In smaller establishments, ovelays can occur from the following, lack of diligence, or incorrect analysis from the sportsbook. Overlays that occur in large reputable venues, are usually premeditated. Here’s why a larger venue would overlay, to attract extra action to a event or to balance out a bet. If a sporting event is not getting enough attention from the betting public, overlays are used to build up excitement for the event. Another reason is if the betting public wagers are heavily on the favorite, overlays may be used as incentive to place bets on the underdog.
To receive odd predictions better than “true” odds on a team would be considered as value betting. For example, if your initial calculations of a game indicates the underdog should be receiving 5.5 points, but is receiving 8.5 point, then that is a value bet recommendation, or an overlay. (True odds: the actual odds of something happening as opposed to what a linemaker or sportsbook would offer.)
- The Advantages of Overlays
This bet type is especially popular in fantasy sports betting, because it draws more action to the sports betting sites. When a guaranteed amount of prize money exceeds the total amount of entry fees collected, that would be an overlay opportunity. Players who wager money on fantasy sports sites will have a greater reward value for the risk they are willing to bet. Finding a higher reward value, on a overlay tournament can be a great tool for online fantasy sports betting.
Having less total participants, increases your chances of winning dramatically in some GPPs. (A guaranteed prize pool also known as a GPP) If the prize pool is guaranteed, and not enough players join, the prize money will be split into larger payouts. To calculate the expected reward first, multiply your odds to win by the amount of money an average player would receive if they win.
- When to use overlay
Using these strategies correctly and in the right circumstances will allow you to reduce the risk to zero in many cases. If you have confidence for a winner in your sport of choice, you can use overlay to help increase your total profits, while still making sure you aren’t losing money on any bets.
Use a matched betting calculator to avoid making any costly mistakes. On most matched betting calculators, you can use the custom lay slider to adjust the level of risk associated with any bets you place. This can also help find the right value of liability if your bankroll is disperse throughout several different bookmakers while completing wagering requirements.
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Parlay bets
A parlay bet is when a bettor makes two or more bets, combined into one bet. A parlay bet may contain two individual bets, or many more. Depending on the sportsbook or the region they may also be called “accumulators” or “multis.”
The disadvantage of a parlay bet is that if any of the bets in the parley loses, the entire parlay is lost. This makes parlay bets very difficult to win, especially if they are made up of many individual bets. The advantage is that if all the individual wagers win, the bettor can get a bigger payout.
- Calculating parlays
- Change the American odds to decimal odds
- Multiply all decimal odds together
- Multiply the result by your bet amount
- Subtract your original stake to get the parlay odds
Parlaying three point spreads, and each is at -110. First, convert those odds to decimal, which is 1.91. Then multiply them together:
- Multiply this by your bet amount. Your bet $10 example:
- Subtract your original bet amount:
Parlay pays out $59.70 for every $10 bet. In American odds, that’s +597, meaning this parlay pays nearly 6-1. That’s a great payout, but you have to win all three bets to see any payout at all.
- Advantages and disadvantages of parlays
These bets can promise huge payouts, but they are very risky. This wouldn’t be considered a good investment strategy. If you are into the thrill of just betting on sports, this gives you the oppurtunity to spread your wagers on various outcomes to see if they win. The disadvantage of a parlay bet is that, if any of the bets in the parlay loses, the entire parlay is lost. Remeber, the house always has the advantage. Depending on what you are trying to achieve through sports betting. If you are looking to make money using parlay betting, then the answer is no.
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Parlay pushes
If you are a fan of the parlay betting strategy a push can get a little more involved. Here’s why.
A parlay, accumulator, combo bet or multi is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting all of them is much higher. If any of the bets in the parlay lose, the entire parlay loses. If any of the plays in the parlay ties, or “pushes”, the parlay reverts to a lower number of teams with the odds reducing accordingly.
Although you can use a variety of bets to build your parlay bet, correlated parlays are usually not allowed at betting sites. Correlated parlays are two or more bets from the same game that rely on a closely related outcome. Sportsbooks restrict this action because closely related bets can lead to bigger payouts in the chance of a win, which means a more substantial loss for the sportsbook.
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